汇市新闻

美元升勢暫緩

日期:2021-06-23

周二(6月22日),美元暂停涨势,交易员将在美联储主席鲍威尔的证词中寻找指导,此前美联储的政策前景出现意外转变。自美联储上周宣布加息时间早于预期以来,美元已大幅上涨,但周一回落,小幅回吐涨幅。美市盘中,美元指数交投于91.80一线,日内小幅下跌。西太平洋银行外汇分析师Imre Speizer表示,“(美联储)的立场已从长期的鸽派转变为现在的略微鹰派。”他说:“仓位遭到了一些清理——此前整个世界都在做空美元,而这在很大程度上可能已经被清理干净了——现在我们在下一次上涨之前深呼吸一下。”


中期而言,投资者将密切关注美国就业市场,因其表现可能对美联储的态度产生影响。在不久的将来,所有的目光都集中在鲍威尔身上,他将于美东时间周二14:00在国会露面。他在事先准备好的发言中指出,劳动力市场持续改善,最近通货膨胀率上升。圣路易斯联储主席布拉德和达拉斯联储主席卡普兰等鹰派美联储官员周一的措辞较为温和。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯说,现在改变政策还为时过早,他预计通胀将从今年的约3%缓解到2022年和2023年的接近2%。

加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)首席经济学家Tom Porcelli认为,到2022年底,核心通胀率可能会更高——略低于3%。


“这不是2%的通胀,”他在一份报告中说,这最终将对美联储施加压力,迫使其调整利率。“与此同时,我们毫不怀疑,鲍威尔将试图淡化明年加息的可能性。但就像他最终在缩减购债规模的讨论上让步一样,他也会在放弃加息的讨论上让步。只要再多给点时间。”


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