汇市新闻

美元不太可能大升值

日期:2021-07-12

7月8日美元指数震荡走低,在稍早触及92.79高点之后大幅回落至92.25。周三该指数一度触及92.85,为4月5日以来的最高水平。路透调查预计,美联储将在8月或9月宣布缩减资产购买的策略。多数人预计美联储将于明年初开始首次削减债券购买计划,而约三分之一的受访者预计将在今年最后一个季度开始削减。

花旗认为美元应该会走强,但在未来一年只会温和上涨。美联储料将在欧洲央行和日本央行之前减少刺激措施,但由于美联储在紧缩政策和经济增长势头指标方面预计仍落后于许多其他央行,美元不太可能大幅升值。“加拿大央行、挪威央行和新西兰联储预计都将先于美联储加息,澳洲联储和英国央行也有可能决定尽快恢复正常。”预计未来6至12个月,美元指数DXY将升至93.28。



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