汇市新闻

瑞银:开春后美数据若向好将大力提振美元

日期:2014-03-25
业内机构瑞银集团(UBS)周一(3月24日)指出,美联储上周在结束政策会议后所透露的可能在2015年中期以前即开始加息的状况,目前仍在得到市场各界的进一步咀嚼和解读,但如果此后数月间,美国各项经济在摆脱了此前的冬季严寒恶劣天气影响后快速好转,那么美联储的提前加息预期就能得到证实,这将推动美元指数重新走强。
 
去年年底以来,在美联储连续缩减量化宽松措施(QE)月度购债措施的背景下,美元指数非旦没有出现预期中的大幅走强,反而持续承压走低,而美国国内在冬季因为风雪严寒天气而持续表现低迷的经济数据状况则被认为是罪魁祸首。而在气象学意义上的春季已于上周开始的情况下,之后一段市间美国经济数据是否能出现快速好转将直接左右美元指数在后市的走势前景。
 
瑞银基于上述状况,将其美元兑加元在一个月期限内的汇价预期由1.10上修到1.13,并将英镑兑美元的汇价预期由1.63下修到了1.61,不过,欧元兑美元与美元兑日元的汇价则仍分别维持在1.35和105不变,因该行认为美元相对欧元和日元的近期走势已经在很大程度上反映出来美国经济数据向好预期的影响。
 
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