汇市新闻

欧元区CPI自四年低点反弹 仍不如预期

日期:2014-05-02
有消息声称:欧洲统计局公布的数据显示,4月欧元区CPI同比增速由3月的0.5%回升至0.7%。受复活节晚来的影响,3月CPI数据创逾4年新低。
 
也有数据显示,欧元区4月CPI初值年率+0.7%,预期+0.8%,前值+0.5%。欧元区4月核心CPI初值年率+1.0%,预期+1.0%,前值+0.7%。
 
尽管今年的复活节(刺激消费)在4月,但是4月CPI仍然低于经济学家们的逾期,路透社认为通缩风险仍然盘旋在欧元区上空。
 
欧洲央行一年两次的政策投票会议下周将在布鲁塞尔举行。英国《金融时报》认为,欧洲央行最快在下周会议上采取进一步(宽松)政策应对通胀问题的可能尚未被排除。而且欧洲央行进一步降息的可能比QE要大。
 
从分项看,4月能源价格下跌趋势减缓、服务业价格环比加速增长,但是食品饮料烟草行业和非能源工业产品价格环比增速出现下跌。
 
上周欧洲央行行长德拉吉称,如果消费者价格通胀增长的中期前景恶化,欧洲央行会考虑扩大范围购买资产,不仅限于资产支持证券ABS。他还表示,汇率对欧洲央行的货产品政策越来越重要,欧元上涨会引起欧洲央行行动。
 
因此欧元区4月CPI数据被认为可能决定德拉吉是否实施执掌欧洲央行近两年半以来最激进的政策--实施负利率或进一步实质性计划在欧元区实施量化宽松(QE)。
 
最后远东贵金属分析师预测,4月欧元区物价同比增0.8%,3月同比增幅为0.5%。如果4月CPI增速不及3月的话,欧洲央行将面临进一步宽松的实质性选择。 
 
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